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2020 US Presidential Election Betting Preview

2020-us-presidential-election-betting-preview

The time for the 2020 Presidential Election has just about arrived and the waiting is almost over. For people who are planning to bet on the outcome, time is running out to make your selections. And if you’re among those planning on wagering, we’re here to help you out by offering a 2020 Presidential Election betting preview.

We’ve reached that point where you’ve probably reached one of two conclusions about the 2020 Presidential Election. You may be sick of it all, from the constant ads to the ever-present commentators to the citizenry choosing sides. But you might also be looking forward to it, possibly with the idea of putting down some wagers on the outcomes at top political betting websites.

This year offers some interesting opportunities, for sure. Besides straight betting on whether you think President Donald Trump will stay in office or Joe Biden will defeat him, you can also find any number of side bets which take different angles on the election. It’s a veritable buffet of betting options, almost like what you would see for a top football game.

Bet on the 2020 US Presidential Elections With Caution

But just because bets are available to be made, it doesn’t mean you should just leap right in and starting throwing money down indiscriminately. Any bet you consider should be looked at with the same scrutiny as you would an investment. And that means that you should take your time with making your choices, doing as much research as possible.

You might not think that a presidential election would provide you with that kind of meat on the bone for study. But you can analyze this just as you would take stats to break apart a sporting event. Or you can use your gut instincts based on your past experiences observing elections.

In the following article, we’ll provide all the help we can in terms of providing a 2020 Presidential Election gambling preview that you can use as you make your wagers. We’ll take a look at some of the top bets that are available at gambling sites, with analysis on each. And we’ll also give you some tips that will help you overall as you bet the 2020 Presidential Election.

Top Bets for 2020 Presidential Election

Who Will Win?

This is the most basic of all the bets you’ll find at top gambling sites. You get money line odds for these bets, meaning there is a favorite and an underdog. In addition, the vice presidential candidates are included in case you want to take a long shot stab that something screwy happens and they end up in the race.

For example, take a look at the odds from BetOnline.ag:

  • Joe Biden: -210
  • Donald Trump: +175
  • Mike Pence: +3300
  • Kamala Harris: +6600
  • Joanne Marie Jorgensen: +50000

You’re looking at Biden with odds of better than 1 to 2 here. Meanwhile Trump’s odds have risen to nearly 2 to 1. (For those unaware of how the money line works, you would be betting $210 to win $100 on Biden and you would be betting $100 to win $175 on Trump.)

When it comes to this wager, you have to consider if there is any value in it on either side. And you have to remember that the favorite doesn’t always win. In 2016, just about every major poll had Hillary Clinton defeating Trump, and that, of course, didn’t happen.

It’s important to remember that polls have a margin of error. Even though most of them have Biden well out in front, that doesn’t mean that they’ll be accurate. The question is whether any of them have a margin or error big enough for an outcome where Trump surges late in the game once again and pulls off the victory.

One Other Thing About the Polls:

They are often taking a snapshot of the nation as a whole. But the election is decided by the states, in particular the electoral votes awarded by each.

That’s why you’ll see constant references to “battleground” states, which are the ones where a swing either way could have a major impact on the election. In 2016, Trump upsets in Wisconsin and Michigan turned the tide of the election. If he could pull off similar stunners this year, there is no telling what might happen.

This feels like more of a toss-up than what the odds would suggest. Trump’s “silent majority” may yet show up en masse undetected by the pre-election polls like they did in 2016. As a result, even though Biden is a deserving favorite, the unexciting odds might not be worth a bet on him.

The odds to win the election change every week, and we want to make sure you have the most update to date odds when you go to place your bets. If you click the button below, you’ll get taken over to my good friend Gary Stone’s author page, where he writes about the political betting odds each week so you can follow along as the election approaches.

State by State

On BetOnline, you can get odds on how the election will turn out in each state. This might be the kind of wager you like if you don’t think there is enough value in the odds on the overall 2020 Presidential Election. You can pick and choose different states where you might be able to find that lacking value.

Here are a few interesting ones in terms of battleground states:

Pennsylvania

  • Democrat: -260
  • Republican: +200

Many people think that Biden has a strong advantage in the Keystone State because of his history as a child in Scranton. But it’s important to remember that Hillary Clinton also had those local ties and still Trump won. That’s why those odds seem a little too skewed in the Democratic favor, as opposed to the juicy 2 to 1 odds you’ll get when you take the Republican side.

Texas

  • Republican: -350
  • Democrat: -275

Right now, all signs point to Texas remaining a Republican sure thing in the 2020 Presidential Election. But the odds of nearly 3 to 1 you’ll get for Biden in this state are about as high as possible for a state that could legitimately turn. If you believe a blue wave is coming on Election night, Texas would be a great place to start if you’re seeking a nice payback.

Montana

  • Republican: -1000
  • Democrat: +600

It’s technically not a battleground state, mainly because it’s traditionally Republican and there aren’t that many electoral votes at stake, which means the Democrats don’t work too hard to try and claim it. But there have been recent pools which suggest a dissatisfaction with the President in the state. A contested Senate race there could also spur Democratic enthusiasm, which could lead to a serious payout at 6 to 1 if Biden carries the day there.

Congress Bets

Of course, the 2020 Presidential Election isn’t the only big race that will be taking place on Election Day. By most accounts, the Democrats will have no problem holding on to their lead in the House of Representatives. But the Senate, where the Republicans are currently in control, is another matter entirely.

Right now, the Republicans hold a 53 to 45 edge over the Democrats for the Senate. There are also two independents who tend to vote with the Democrats, which makes the actual margin 53 to 47. To flip control completely, they would need to add four Senate spots if Trump wins and three if Biden does.

That might seem like a tall task. But the way the election map works this time around, there are far more Republican senators defending their seats. And many of those seem to be vulnerable, according to analysts, while the vast majority of the Democrats defending appear safe. So what does that mean for the odds?

Let’s Take a Look at Two Prop Bets Found on BetOnline.ag:

Majority Control of the Senate

  • Democrats: -225
  • Republicans: +160

Outcome of Senate and House Representatives

  • All other outcomes: -175
  • Democrats Control House and Republicans Control Senate: +140

It’s interesting to see these two bets side by side. Because you’re looking at essentially the same wager, albeit with slightly different odds.

We’ve already told you that there doesn’t appear to be any chance that the House of Representatives switches over from Democratic control. As a result, which side you’re on will decide which of these bets you should choose.

If you believe that the Democrats are going to take the Senate, you should choose the “all other outcomes” and take -175 (instead of the -225 for the Dems to take control of the Senate.) And, if you believe the Republicans will hold onto the Senate, you should choose take the +160 on the Majority Control bet instead of the +140 you’d get for the bet that includes both chambers.

Betting on Election Concession

One of the hot-button issues surrounding the 2020 Presidential Election has been the increased use of mail-in ballots. A record-setting number of these votes will be counted. But the question of when exactly they will be counted leads to our next interesting prop bet. Take a look, courtesy of MyBookie.ag:

Day the Loser Concedes the Election

  • 3: +400
  • 4: +225
  • 5: +500
  • 6: +650
  • 7: +800
  • 8: +900
  • 9: +900
  • 10: +1200
  • 11: +1200
  • 12: +1200
  • 13 or after: -165

Notice that the latest possible outcome, November 13 or after, is by far the heavy favorite here. That’s based on the fact that many people think that the confusion over mail-in ballots being counted well after the election in key battleground states could cause chaos. In particular, President Trump has referred to the possibility that he wouldn’t concede if there is question about the fairness of these ballots.

Whether or not you agree with his assessment, there is no doubt such an outcome could occur. But the odds you’ll get to make that selection don’t really seem like they’ll be worth it to you. And, again, it’s all about looking for value.

It’s a better play to try to hone in on November 5 or 6, where you’ll get 5 to 1 or 6 to 1 payback, respectively. By two days after the election, there is a good chance that enough of those mail-in ballots will be counted to give some clarity and put pressure on whomever is behind to concede. That would put you in line for a nice payback.

Final Tips for Betting on the 2020 Presidential Election

  • Bet with your head and your heart. Just as you shouldn’t bet on your favorite football team just because you love them, so too should you avoid betting on a president just because you support their ideas. If you can’t separate your bet from your preference, better not to bet at all.
  • Do the math. If you sit down with a pen and paper, you can get to the bottom of what the electoral map looks like. Try to figure out the most likely scenarios and that should lead you to an informed conclusion.
  • Lock your odds in now. If you are dead-sure on which candidate you think will win, it’s probably better to bet now with the odds where they are. What will happen if your candidate does pull ahead further as the election approaches is that you’ll see those odds become less favorable to you.

Jim Beviglia

Jim Beviglia joined Gamblingsites.org as a staff writer in 2018, parlaying his years of freelance writing into contributions on a number of different topics. He handles the sport of horse racing for GamblingSites.org and the intersection between the worlds of cryptocurrency and online gambling in a weekly blog.
For his full-time job, Jim handles the television and track announcing duties at a h …

View all posts by Jim Beviglia

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