|Kansas City Chiefs||-4.5 (-110)||-220||Over 57.5 (-110)|
|Buffalo Bills||+4.5 (-115)||+190||Under 57.5 (-110)|
It’s strange that a game featuring the Buffalo Bills looks like one of the best games of the week, but 2020 is a weird time to be alive. The Bills were humbled in Tuesday’s 42-16 shellacking at the hands of the Titans in Nashville, but Josh Allen and company will have a chance to get right back on track with a statement win over the Chiefs at home on Monday night.
Kansas City is looking to get back on track themselves. Just a few days after BetOnline paid out bettors that wagered on the Chiefs to win the AFC West, the reigning Super Bowl champions came out and got flattened on their home field by the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are still in the driver’s seat in the division, but the Raiders reminded everyone that the champs aren’t home-free just yet.
This game was originally slated to take place on Thursday night, but the NFL having to push the Bills’ aforementioned game with the Titans to Tuesday forced this game to Monday instead. The Chiefs are four-point favorites on the road in a game with a massive 57.5 over/under.
Tough Spot for Buffalo’s Defense
The Buffalo Bills haven’t had much trouble putting points on the board, but there are some question marks about this defense. The Titans ran roughshod over Buffalo to the tune of 42 points on Tuesday, which means the Bills have yielded at least 23 points to their opponents in each of the last four games. Buffalo is still off to a solid 4-1 start, but the D will be put to the test against Patrick Mahomes this week.
The Bills’ defense ranks just 27th in DVOA so far this season. The Chiefs’ offense, meanwhile, has been the second-best in the league in DVOA so far in 2020, trailing only the high-flying Packers.
Pinpoint accuracy from Josh Allen 🎯
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 14, 2020
As the over/under indicates, we may have a shootout here. Allen has started the season in excellent form, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards (1,589) and touchdown passes (14). Stefon Diggs has looked right at home as Allen’s top target in the passing game, with three games over 100 receiving yards in his last four starts.
The Bills’ offense was held in check by the Titans, but that’s the first time it’s happened all year. That loss snapped a streak of three straight games with 30-plus points for Buffalo. Bills games have hit the over in four out of five tries so far this season, along with a push. The Chiefs have gone under in three of their five games thus far.
The Kansas City Chiefs signed ex-Jets running back Le’Veon Bell on Thursday, which could shake up Kansas City’s backfield. However, Bell won’t be eligible to make his debut for the Chiefs until Week 7, as he needs to pass a number of health screenings before being cleared to join his teammates in practice.
So, this could be the last game of the season in which rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire shoulders most of the load in the running game. The LSU product has been useful thus far, with 81 carries for 344 yards and a touchdown through five games. He has also caught another 17 passes (27 targets) for 169 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1 against the Texans, though, and Bell’s eventual presence in the backfield just gives Mahomes an embarrassment of riches with which to work.
— Le’Veon Bell (@LeVeonBell) October 15, 2020
Mahomes accounted for three scores last week against the Raiders, and it was his 20th career game with at least 300 passing yards. Tyreek Hill has found the end zone in four of his last five games, but the Raiders limited him to just 78 yards last week. Travis Kelce was a more consistent force in the passing attack, accruing over 100 yards with a touchdown of his own.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Pick
It’s worth noting that the Chiefs are getting a little more rest ahead of this game. Kansas City will have had over a week to prepare after losing to the Raiders at home last Sunday. The Bills will be dealing with a short week following Tuesday’s loss in Tennessee. Giving Andy Reid and Mahomes extra time to prepare for an opponent is almost always bad news for said opponent, so the Chiefs look pretty favorable here.
Frankly, it’s tough to see how the Bills slow down Kansas City’s attack. The Chiefs haven’t lost back-to-back games in just over a year, and I do think the extra time to get ready for this game will wind up paying dividends.
Both public and sharp bettors are also favoring Kansas City on the road. 73 percent of all wagers placed on the spread of this game have come in on the Chiefs to cover the four-point margin. A hefty 95 percent of all money has come in on the Chiefs, too.
I’ll go with the public here. The Bills have been plucky, but I think they’re in for another dose of reality in this one. Bet the Chiefs to cover the spread and get the job done in Western New York on Monday night.
Chiefs at Bills Pick
Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …