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Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election?

who-will-win-the-2024-presidential-election?

The 2020 US presidential election isn’t over yet. All 50 states are continuing to count the votes. While Joe Biden is now a -600 favorite to win according to the latest odds from MyBookie, nothing is final until all votes are officially tabulated.

While we don’t yet know who will be occupying the White House for the next four years, you can still already bet on the 2024 presidential election. MyBookie has had 2024 election odds for quite some time, and they have shifted as the 2020 race has continued.

Biden winning in 2020 may give Democrats an inside track for 2024, but the last four years have shown us that nothing is certain in the world of politics. Biden himself is among the betting favorites to win in ’24, but it will be fascinating to see how the race unfolds over the next four years.

We know one thing. There will be no shortage of candidates lining up on both sides of the aisle with an eye on winning the White House four years from now. You’re going to have to wait quite a while for your 2024 presidential bets to win, but it’s still interesting to take a look at the field of potential candidates.  Are there any prospective names out there worth a wager right now?

AOC Leads the Way (+300)

Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is a 31-year-old Congresswoman from New York that has only been in office for a couple of years, but she has already built one of the biggest profiles in the world of American politics. She unexpectedly beat incumbent Joe Crowley in her congressional race a couple of years ago, and her ascent appears to have no end in sight.

Ocasio-Cortez easily won her general election in 2018 over Republican challenger Anthony Pappas in 2018. Many already believe she has a bright future in politics, with an eye on potentially capturing the Democratic nomination for the presidency just four years from now, shortly after she turns 35.

While Ocasio-Cortez may well run for president one day, it’s hard to imagine her taking such a huge step this early in her career. It’s also worth wondering whether the Democratic Party will be in favor of the potential to have such a progressive voice atop the ticket. Let’s not forget that Bernie Sanders looked like a good bet to win the nomination earlier this year until the party’s base swung heavily in favor of Biden instead.

A lot can (and will) happen between now and 2024. The Democratic Party has shifted considerably further to the left compared to where it was during Barack Obama’s eight years in office. So, it’s not impossible to think that someone with AOC’s track record may be more mainstream in the party by then.

Still, the +300 odds don’t look overly favorable. Ocasio-Cortez would be worth a flier if the odds were in the neighborhood of +1000, but I don’t necessarily think she should have the best odds of all.

Biden (+300) Has Better Odds Than Harris (+350)

Since Biden tapped Kamala Harris to be his running mate, many have assumed that it’s a signal that Harris will be next in line to the Democratic nomination. Harris’ own presidential run crashed and burned last December, though, so it’s worth wondering whether serving as Biden’s potential VP will help her standing among her party’s base of voters.

Let’s Talk About Biden, Though

Assuming he wins, he will be about 82 years old by the time the next election rolls around. It’s fair to assume that the former vice president’s plan was to run to try and defeat Trump before giving way to someone younger to carry the baton after that. It’s not impossible to think that Biden could run for re-election, but at his age, it does seem a bit unlikely.

While incumbents are historically difficult to beat in elections, the chances of Biden seeking a prospective second term look dicey. If Biden ultimately winds up losing this year’s election, there is a 0.0 percent chance he runs again four years from now, obviously.

Harris, who is just 56, would seem to be a natural successor to Biden. We’ve seen vice presidents run for the presidency following their terms a number of times in the past. Assuming a potential Biden Administration wouldn’t be a complete disaster, Harris’ standing within the party is likely to improve between now and then. It was difficult for her to break through the crowded 2020 field as a Senator, but she may have a clearer path if she runs as the sitting VP.

As a result, Harris seems to be a far more logical betting option at +350 than Biden is at +300.

Let’s Talk Trumps

The last five years have been dominated by the Trumps. Since Donald came down the escalator with Melania in the summer of 2015, not a single news cycle has passed that doesn’t involve some member of the Trump family. Or so it feels.

Even if Trump winds up losing his bid for re-election, it’s pretty unlikely that the Trumps are going anywhere. While Donald’s own political career may come to an end, we’re sure to hear from him in some form or fashion quite a bit for the foreseeable future. There is also a pretty decent chance that we see Don Jr., Ivanka, or Eric run for some sort of political office.

NEW COVER: As the ballot-counting drags on, Trump’s fate is still unsettled.

The fate of Trumpism, on the other hand, is clear: It isn’t going away. And Trump himself may remain in the political spotlight even if he loses. https://t.co/INI5yTI3bD pic.twitter.com/zHLjHrNE6E

— Businessweek (@BW) November 5, 2020

Jr. has made his own political aspirations known. While it seems like some of his comments have been made tongue-in-cheek, he has pretty clearly been bitten by the political bug. Ivanka and her husband, Jared, have been on Donald’s White House staff since he was elected. Eric’s potential political aspirations are less clear, but still possible.

If Big Don winds up losing in 2020, it’s not unfathomable to think he could run again in 2024. He’ll be 78 by then, though, and he is likely facing no shortage of legal challenges whenever he does leave the White House. I’m not sure Trump Sr. really wants to give this another go, so I’d pass on that happening.

MyBookie has Ivanka at +3000 to win the 2024 election. Don Jr. isn’t among those with listed odds, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he decided to mount his own run for the White House before 2024. If you can find a political betting site that has Don Jr. with a price, I wouldn’t mind taking a stab at that. Ivanka running is certainly a possibility, but I’d say Jr. is the more likely of the Trump spawn to run for elected office in the near future.

What About Other Republicans?

Republicans appear likely to keep their slight majority in the Senate moving forward, which is a boon for the GOP heading into 2024. Republicans also gained seats in the House of Representatives unexpectedly, while Trump has put up at least a respectable showing in the general election. The GOP is far from done yet in terms of political relevance in this country.

Regardless, it’ll be interesting to see how the party approaches presidential politics heading into 2024. Trump upended a field of establishment-style candidates in 2016 that included the likes of Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio.

BREAKING: Republican Tom Cotton wins reelection to U.S. Senate from Arkansas. #APracecall at 7:30 p.m. CST. #Election2020 #ARelection https://t.co/lGfinjTqT4

— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) November 4, 2020

The odds say we’re likely to see those same establishment types give it another go in 2024 after getting out of Trump’s way in 2020. Cruz (+1200), Senator Josh Hawley (+1200), and Senator Tom Cotton (+1500) have the best odds of any Republican in MyBookie’s updated ’24 odds.

Cruz is no stranger to runs for the White House. Let’s not forget he won the Iowa Caucuses in 2016 and emerged as the GOP frontrunner before Trump blew the doors off the rest of the field. Hawley and Cotton are newer faces on the political scene, but it’s easy to see how both could have bigger dreams in the near future. Cotton, for example, has already dipped his toes into the waters of New Hampshire.

Clearly, Republican voters value charisma. There’s a reason we’ve got Trump in the Oval Office right now. In that regard, both Hawley and Cruz would seem to have an edge over Cotton, who appears to have as much personality as a common doorknob.

Hawley has become a popular figure within the party despite having been in the Senate for just a couple of years, and he has given plenty of hints as to what his foreign policy vision may hold. I’m a little skeptical of Cruz’ chances after falling flat in 2016. So, of these potential GOP contenders, Hawley looks like the one that stands out as the most intriguing if you think a Republican takes the White House back in 2024.

Are Any Non-Harris Democrats a Possibility?

In many cases, we see prospective candidates get out of the way in favor of incumbents. We essentially saw this in 2016 despite Hillary Clinton not being an incumbent, as she pretty easily cruised to the nomination despite a surprising charge from Sanders. In 2020, Trump was the no-brainer nominee for Republicans.

Elizabeth Warren (+800) and Bernie (+1000) are both fairly high on MyBookie’s list, followed by Michelle Obama (+1000), Andrew Cuomo (+1200), and Pete Buttigieg (+1500).

Wearing a mask is about respect, it’s about community and it’s about love.

Mask up.

— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) November 5, 2020

Sanders is even older than Biden, so it’s hard to imagine he will really run again in four years. Warren is no spring chicken, either, and she may have missed her last and best opportunity in this cycle. Michelle Obama is arguably the most popular figure in the modern Democratic Party, but she has resisted commenting on potentially running for the White House in the past.

Andrew Cuomo gained plenty of national notoriety thanks to his daily briefings earlier this year. Unlike Michelle Obama, the New York Governor hasn’t been bashful about making his aspirations known. Buttigieg gained some steam during his own run in this cycle, and he’s young enough to where it’s very likely we see him throw his hat into the ring again in the future.

If you want to wager on any non-Harris Democrats, the bets that make the most sense here are Obama (+1000), Cuomo (+1200), and Buttigieg (+1500).

Taylor Smith

Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …

View all posts by Taylor Smith

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