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Canelo Alvarez vs Callum Smith Betting Preview, Odds and Picks


On Saturday, December 19th, a huge night of boxing action will take place from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, as the sport’s top attraction Saul “Canelo” Alvarez takes on Callum Smith for the WBA and WBC super-middleweight titles.

The co-main event was supposed to be Julio Cesar Martinez defending his WBC flyweight title against Francisco Rodriguez, but Martinez had to withdraw from the fight last week due to an illness.

In total, there are seven fights still scheduled for this event. However, a few of them are still being sorted out as Rodriguez and another competitor are without opponents.

Boxing betting sites have released a full slate of prop bets and odds for the main event of the night. Let’s take a closer look at these Canelo vs Callum betting odds and KO our predictions.

Making 𝙃𝙄𝙎𝙏𝙊𝙍𝙔 Is The Goal. 🌟

This is: ’40 DAYS: Canelo vs. Smith’ Episode 1 🎥

— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) December 14, 2020

Canelo Alvarez vs Callum Smith

  • Canelo Alvarez (-700)
  • Callum Smith (+520)

As expected, Canelo Alvarez enters this world title fight as the betting favorite with odds ranging from -600 to -800. For the better part of his career, Canelo has been the betting favorite in his fights.

However, he did end up as the underdog for both of his bouts against Gennady Golovkin which took place in 2017 and 2018. Now, he’s considered the favorite in a potential trilogy fight.

Like Alvarez, the unbeaten Callum Smith has been a betting favorite in most of his fights over the last six years. The lone exception was a world title contest against George Groves in 2018. Now, Smith finds himself as the underdog once again, with odds ranging from +350 to +600.

Alvarez vs Smith Preview

Details Canelo Alvarez Callum Smith
Age 30 30
Height 5’8” 6’3”
Reach 70.5” 78”
Total Fights 56 27
Record 53-1-2 27-0
Knockouts 36 19

Can Smith Remain Undefeated?

As mentioned, Callum Smith defeated George Groves a little over two years ago to capture the WBA super-middleweight title. Since then, Smith has gone on to defend the belt twice.

In June 2019, Smith defeated Hassan N’Dam via 3rd round TKO. In fact, N’Dam was knocked down in all three rounds.

The success that Smith had in his first title defense, was not the case in his second title defense. 13 months ago, in Smith’s last fight, he went the full 12 rounds against John Ryder to win via unanimous decision with the scores 117-111, 116-112, and 116-112.

However, there were fans and pundits who thought that John Ryder did enough to win that fight and that the scores were inaccurate. Smith did sustain a cut over his right eye in that contest.

Next Saturday I prove I’m the best in the world at 168lbs. @DAZNBoxing #CaneloSmith

— Callum Smith (@CallumSmith23) December 9, 2020

Now, Smith will put his title and undefeated record on the line against the sport’s top draw. The Brit is very confident heading into this contest:

“It depends on how you rate me. If you think I’m good you won’t be surprised. If you don’t rate me you’ll probably put this one up there. Canelo’s best days are at middle. At 168-pounds I beat anybody. I’m the best in the world at this weight.”

For Smith to win this fight, he’s going to need to use his size to his advantage. Smith has a five inch height and eight inch reach advantage.

Smith needs to fight from a distance with jabs and control in order to prevent Alvarez from getting in on the inside. His length will be his biggest weapon on Saturday.

Will Canelo Steamroll Smith?

This will be Canelo’s first fight in 13 months. The pandemic derailed a fight in May and negotiations fell through on a trilogy fight with GGG. Fortunately, things were able to go through smoothly with Smith’s camp and the fans are treated to a great world title fight.

At this point in his career, Canelo is all about taking fights that interest him and for the most part, that means world title fights only:

“Those who know more about boxing consider me the best pound-for-pound [fighter] and that is what matters, and the truth is that I no longer have to prove anything. I always come in to demonstrate what I can do. I can never have [everyone] happy, and the truth is that I don’t care about that, I don’t have to prove anything to anyone, I’m showing myself that I can have a great career and a great story, and that’s what interests me, to show myself that I can be one of the best in boxing history.”

Over the last five years, only one of Canelo’s fights haven’t been for a world title. Last year, Canelo fought twice. He beat Daniel Jacobs for the WBA and IBF middleweight titles.

Yet, instead of staying at the 160 pound weight class, Canelo went all the way up to 175 pounds to take on Sergey Kovalev for the WBO light heavyweight title. Alvarez was the smaller man, but ended up winning via 11th round KO. The scorecards were practically even heading into the 11th.

Canelo proved that he can overcome height and reach disadvantages against a bigger fighter to overpower his opponent on the inside. This will be the same formula that Alvarez uses in his fight against Smith on Saturday.

Who Wins the WBA and WBC World Titles?

Smith is ranked as the #1 super-middleweight by ESPN. He’s going to be a tough challenge for Alvarez and is a live dog in this contest. Not only does he have smooth technical skills for a 168 pounder, but he also has a strong counterpunching arsenal, which will come into play in this fight.

Canelo will use his head movement to close the distance and attack the body. Smith will either need to fight from a distance or get ready to counter Alvarez’s crushing body shots.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Callum Smith – Vacant WBC Title Now at Stake

— (@boxingscene) December 11, 2020

As good as Smith is, I believe that Canelo is too tough of a stylistic matchup for the Brit. Whether it’s fatigue or Canelo’s footwork, I expect Smith to struggle in the latter rounds of this contest.

Last year, Ryder showed that outworking and getting inside on Smith is the blueprint for winning. Unfortunately, the judges felt differently.

This weekend, Canelo will take that blueprint to another level as he does a lot of damage on the inside as he attacks Smith’s body. But, will Alvarez get the finish or will this fight go the distance?

Canelo Alvarez vs Callum Smith –Alvarez (-700)

Canelo vs Smith Over/Under

  • Over 9.5 rounds (-155)
  • Under 9.5 rounds (+135)

For Canelo, he’s gone over 9.5 rounds in five of his last six fights. Smith has gone over this mark in four of his last six bouts.

I see this contest going Over 9.5 rounds as I expect Smith to keep Alvarez at a distance for long stretches of this bout just like Kovalev did last year. It will take time for Canelo to overcome the distance and finally get in on the inside.

Video: @Canelo Alvarez says ‘I want to make history’ #boxing #Canelo #canelovssmith

— Boxing Junkie (@BoxingJunkie2) December 14, 2020

By the time Canelo accomplishes this, I expect it to be at least the 10th round. If you prefer, William Hill has an Over/Under of 8.5 rounds at -161 odds, which is a solid option as well.

Canelo vs Smith Over/Under –Over 9.5 rounds (-155)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

  • Yes (+105)
  • No (-135)

Canelo has a 64% knockout rate and Smith has a 70% KO rate. Canelo has gone the distance in 20 of his 56 pro bouts while Smith has gone the distance in eight of his 27 pro contests.

With that said, I do believe this bout will go the full 12 rounds. Although, I am not confident in it. We could easily see a repeat performance for Canelo just like he finished off Kovalev in the 11th round.

Yet, I am giving Smith credit that he will survive the late round punishment, fatigue and body shots to take it the distance.

Smith has gone the full distance in three of his last five fights, while Canelo has gone the distance in four of his last six bouts. I really like the value of +105 odds for this prop bet.

Will the Fight Go the Distance? –Yes (+105)

Alvarez vs Smith Round Betting

  • Rounds 4-6 (+528)
  • Rounds 5-8 (+339)
  • Rounds 7-9 (+405)
  • Rounds 9-12 (+302)
  • Rounds 7-12 (+175)

In my mind, there are really only two options for this prop bet: Rounds 9-12 (+302) and Rounds 7-12 (+175).

When comparing the two, it’s a no brainer! Go with the rounds 7-12 even though it offers less value. At +175, there’s still a great return on investment.

Although I think that the fight will go the distance, this prop bet is a great offering from SportBet. Neither fighter will get stopped before the 7th round, so you basically have the entire second half of the fight covered.

Furthermore, it offers better odds than the prop bet above where the fight ending inside the distance is listed at -135.

Alvarez vs Smith Round Bet –Rounds 7-12 (+175)

Will Canelo Try to Unify the 168-Pound Division?

What Canelo does after this fight could really shake up the sport. One option is for Alvarez to remain at 168 pounds and try to unify the titles.

The other two champs in this weight class are Billy Joe Saunders and Caleb Plant. Canelo and his team tried to make a fight with Saunders in May, but it fell apart due to the pandemic.

Saunders (30-0, 14 KOs) is the WBO super-middleweight champ and just successfully defended his title on December 4th. He defeated Martin Murray via unanimous decision in a lackluster contest.

Caleb Plant (20-0, 12 KOs) is the IBF super-middleweight champ having won the title in January 2019. He’s defended it twice with his most recent bout coming in February 2020 where he won via 10th round TKO over Vincent Feigenbutz.

Plant was in line for a December fight with Alvarez, but the deal was unable to come to fruition as Team Canelo went with Smith. Plant is set to defend his IBF title on January 30th.

As you can see, both champs have already expressed interest in fighting Canelo and have had actual discussions.

Alvarez will most likely fight against in May 2021, which is plenty of time for Plant or Saunders to get ready for a unification bout. Furthermore, Alvarez and his team has expressed the desire to stay at this weight and try to unify all of the titles next year.

Will We See Canelo vs GGG 3?

Any of those world title fights would be exciting for fans, but the one that most boxing enthusiasts want to see the most is a trilogy bout against Gennadiy Golovkin. Canelo recently commented on a third fight against GGG:

“We all know that the only fight Golovkin wants, maybe to retire after, is the fight against me. We were in talks with Golovkin before the pandemic started, we were in talks to make a fight this year, but unfortunately this whole pandemic issue happened and all that was canceled.”

Representatives from Team Canelo have expressed that Alvarez would be more interested in fighting Golovkin if the fight took place at 168 pounds. It remains to be seen whether or not GGG would go up eight pounds to chase after Canelo.

If GGG really wants, he could always jump up and challenge Plant for the IBF title. Then if he wins, he can force a fight with Alvarez who wants to unify the division but first GGG has to take on Szeremeta.

Full Alvarez vs Smith Card

  • Canelo Alvarez vs Callum Smith in a 12 round super middleweight world title fight
  • Francisco Rodriguez Jr. vs TBA in a 12 round flyweight bout
  • Diego Pacheco vs Rodolfo Gomez Jr. in an 8 round super middleweight contest
  • Alexis Espino vs Ashton Sykes in a 6 round super middleweight bout
  • Frank Sanchez vs TBA in a 10 round heavyweight clash
  • Christian Gomez Duran vs TBA in a 8 round welterweight fight
  • Austin Williams vs Miguel Angel Hernandez in a 6 round middleweight clash

Rick Rockwell

As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …

View all posts by Rick Rockwell

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