- Trump’s odds to win the 2024 election dip to +2500 amid fallout from Capitol riots
- Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination have also fallen to +1200
- Trump could be banned from holding elected office in the future
Ever since officially losing the 2020 election at the hands of Joe Biden, President Donald Trump has been among the odds-on favorites to win the next election in 2024. Because Trump failed to win re-election last fall, the 45th president is still eligible to seek another term in the future. To this point, Grover Cleveland is the only president in American history to have served two non-consecutive terms in office.
While Trump has still barely acknowledged the fact that he will be out of office later this month, there have been rumors regarding his desire to run yet again four years from now. In the weeks following Biden’s victory, several news sources reported that Trump was considering an official launch to his 2024 presidential campaign as soon as Biden’s inauguration day.
However, the events of the last week have hurt Trump’s future chances of regaining the presidency considerably. While Trump earned the second-most votes of any presidential candidate in American history last year, his decision to essentially coax his supporters into rioting and invading the US Capitol last week has dampened the enthusiasm of oddsmakers regarding his chances of winning another election in 2024.
Trump’s Dipping 2024 Chances
As of this writing, BetOnline.ag has slashed Trump’s odds to win the 2024 election all the way to +2500. He was listed around +1000 in the weeks following his defeat last fall. Many out there believe that Trump would still be the odds-on favorite to win the Republican Party’s nomination in the next election cycle if he decides to throw his hat into the ring, but that is looking less certain, as well.
Trump’s odds to secure his party’s presidential nomination have slid to +1200 at BetOnline. That puts him behind his own VP, Mike Pence (+250), as well as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (+500). Trump now has the same odds to win the nomination as senator Tom Cotton, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (+1400), Congressman Dan Crenshaw (+1800), and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich (+2000) not far behind.
Trump isn’t the only candidate whose chances have been hurt by last week’s siege of the Capitol. Senators Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz, who have both remained steadfast in their support of Trump’s refusal to accept the election results, have made no secret of their own political ambitions. Both are expected to seek the Republican nomination four years from now, but their odds have slid as a result of their actions last week.
Hawley’s Republican nomination odds have dipped to +2500. Cruz, a former rival of Trump’s from the 2016 election cycle, has seen his nomination odds tumble all the way to +6600. Both senators have been asked to resign from their current posts by a number of their fellow congresspeople and a number of local newspapers after helping to incite the pro-Trump riot in Washington.
Harris Favored for Presidency
Vice president-elect Kamala Harris, who will take office next week, is the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at +500. Harris failed in her own bid for the White House late in 2019 before joining Biden’s ticket last summer. Biden, 78, is widely expected to serve just one term in office, but there is still a chance he runs for re-election if he feels up to the challenge. Biden has the same odds as Harris (+500) to win again in four years.
Pence (+600) has the next-best odds, followed by Haley (+1400), Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+1600), and DeSantis (+2000).
Trump is widely expected to be impeached by the House of Representatives later this week due to his incitement of last week’s riot. The Senate likely won’t take up Trump’s impeachment trial until January 19 at the earliest, which means there is a good chance that Trump’s punishment may not be handed down until he has already left office.
While Democrats will take a slight majority in the Senate after last week’s Georgia runoff elections, two-thirds of the Senate would have to vote in favor of conviction in order for Trump to be punished to the fullest extent. The Senate could also ban Trump from holding future elected office as a part of his sentence if it does vote in favor of conviction. Obviously, that measure would prove fatal for Trump’s hopes of ever regaining the highest office in the land.
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …