Tomorrow night, one of the most intriguing title fights in UFC history is set to take place. Israel Adesanya will be moving up in weight to challenge Jan Blachowicz for the light-heavyweight championship of the world. It’s a true super-fight in every sense. Today, I’ll be offering up an in-depth UFC 259 main event prediction.
If you’re planning on betting on UFC 259, consider checking out our complete UFC 259 main card betting preview for a breakdown of each of the fights, but today, we’re focusing on the main event.
There are some important questions surrounding this fight. No one knows how “The Last Stylebender” will look in an entirely new division. I will take a look at each man’s style and break down both of their best paths to victory.
Let’s get into it!
Israel Adesanya vs. Jan Blachowicz: Tale of the Tape
There are a million factors that determine how odds are set for major MMA bouts. One of the first is the physical attributes between both fighters. Any major disparity could help to swing the odds in one fighter’s favor.
Below is a quick “tale of the tape” for both of the men in tomorrow’s main event.
- Height: 6’4”
- Weight: 200.5
- Reach: 80”
- Age: 31
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 205
- Reach: 78”
- Age: 38
The numbers here don’t tell the whole story of this matchup. One important point is the weight difference between these men. Israel weighed in at just 200.5 pounds, nearly five pounds under the allowable limit. He’s a small man for the light-heavyweight division.
Jan Blachowicz, however, tipped the scale at the limit of 205 pounds. He likely cut down to make that weight and will step into the Octagon tomorrow significantly heavier. The weight difference could play a major factor in the fight and could affect how many make their UFC 259 main event prediction.
Adesanya holds the advantage in the height and reach department. That could bode well for a striker of his caliber. He’s also a significantly younger man but has a wealth of experience between his kickboxing and MMA career.
A fighter’s physical attributes won’t determine how a fight plays out. The skills pay the bills, as they say. Let’s a look at the best ways for these men to win tomorrow.
UFC 259 Main Event Analysis: Paths to Victory
Israel Adesanya’s ascension up the UFC rankings has been nothing short of historical. He captured the middleweight title in just a few years and now has the opportunity to be one of just a few individuals to ever earn the “champ-champ” status. He’s a truly elite kickboxer with a strong defensive grappling skill set.
Jan Blachowicz embodies perseverance.
At one point, he seemed close to being cut from the UFC. He rallied and is now the light-heavyweight champion of the world. A win here will solidify his standing as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport.
There’s still time to head to Bovada to make your wagers on this bout. Put your own UFC 259 main event prediction to the test by throwing some money on the man you think gets the job done tomorrow.
Israel Adesanya may very well be the best striker in the history of mixed martial arts. Unlike many fighters, he transitioned seamlessly from kickboxing into MMA. Under the tutelage of Eugene Bareman at City Kickboxing in New Zealand, he’s gone a perfect 20-0 in his mixed martial arts career.
There’s no doubt that Israel will be looking to strike against Blachowicz in this one. He’s the longer man and has more experience a high-level on the feet. He recognizes the power that Jan brings to the table and will likely look to stay on the outside where he can pick apart Jan with punches and kicks.
The main focus will be on avoiding the grappling and punching flurries of Blachowicz. If he can do that, this is a fight he wins. Bovada seems to feel he will accomplish that goal, as he comes in with odds of -235 to win.
Jan Blachowicz isn’t the flashiest fighter in the UFC. He’s effective, however, and uses fundamental striking and grappling attacks to overwhelm his opponents. He showed just how dangerous his game really is against Dominick Reyes in their most recent bout.
With that being said, Jan understands the level of kickboxing that Israel is bringing to this matchup. It seems likely that he will be looking to drag the middleweight champion to the mat when he can. He might even settle with pressing Adesanya against the cage and landing hard shots in close-quarters.
Jan will need to push the pace in this bout. Staying on the outside like Yoel Romero attempted to do just won’t work. Perhaps memories of that Romero fight are on the oddsmakers’ minds. Blachowicz enters this bout as the +185 underdog.
Final UFC 259 Main Event Prediction
This is a much tougher fight to predict than some analysts might tell you. Israel Adesanya has become a superstar with his flashy knockouts and many feel he’ll steamroll Blachowicz in this one. I don’t expect this fight to be easy in any way, though.
Jan Blachowicz has been in the Octagon with some of the scariest fighters in UFC history. He’s also accustomed to fighting dangerous (and bigger) strikers. Many seem to be overlooking how important experience can be for MMA fighters.
Jan Blachowicz via 3rd-round TKO (+185)
This is a pick that many are likely to disagree with. Ultimately, I think fight fans are in for a big upset on Saturday night. Blachowicz is bigger and has considerably more experience in the UFC. That will end up being the difference here.
Expect Blachowicz to push Israel to the cage early and look for takedowns. If he lands one, Adesanya is in for a rough night. He’ll wear down “The Last Stylebend” utilizing this strategy through the first two rounds and end up catching Izzy with a left hook for the TKO finish in the third round.
Do you agree with this UFC 259 main event prediction? How do you see the big fight going down tomorrow night? Let me know in the comments section below.
A longtime sports and gambling enthusiast, Kevin looks to present up-to-date and reliable information for readers. If he’s not writing, he’s probably watching MMA or playing blackjack. …